Kevin Milner, PhD

Geophysicist, computer scientist, and musician living in Los Angeles, CA.

Kevin Ross Milner

Location: Los Angeles, California

E-mail: kevin <at> kevinmilner.net

Last updated October, 2025

Education

Year Degree Concentration Institution Advisor
2020 Ph.D. Geological Sciences (Geophysics) University of Southern California Prof. Thomas Jordan
2015 M.Sc. Geological Sciences (Geophysics) University of Southern California Prof. Thomas Jordan
2007 B.Sc. Computer Sciences University of Southern California  

Professional Appointments

Years Institution Title
2024-present U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center Research Geophysicist
2023-2024 Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California Computational Geophysicist
2018-2023 Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California Computer Scientist
2008-2018 Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California Research Programmer II

Publications

2025

E. H. Field, K. R. Milner, and K. A. Porter, “Risk implications of Poisson assumptions and declustering inferred from a fully time-dependent earthquake forecast,” Earthquake Spectra, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 1977–1997, Aug. 2025, doi: 10.1177/87552930251340677.

E. H. Field, A. E. Hatem, B. E. Shaw, M. T. Page, P. M. Mai, K. R. Milner, A. L. Llenos, A. J. Michael, F. F. Pollitz, J. Thompson Jobe, T. Parsons, O. Zielke, et al., “A Scientific Vision and Roadmap for Earthquake Rupture Forecast Developments, A USGS Perspective,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Sep. 2025, doi: 10.1785/0120240217.

A. H. Hatem, K. R. Milner, R. W. Briggs, and J. Thompson Jobe, “Making many out of one: Synthetic geologic deformation model distributions for use in USGS NSHM25 Puerto Rico-Virgin Island update,” Seismological Research Letters, 2025, Accepted.

K. R. Milner, A. H. Hatem, R. W. Briggs, J. A. Thompson-Jobe, A. L. Llenos, A. J. Michael, A. M. Shumway, E. H. Field, and K. L. Haynie, “The USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands Time-Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2025, Accepted.

K. Porter, K. Milner, and E. Field, “Trimming the UCERF3-TD logic tree: Model order reduction for an earthquake rupture forecast considering loss exceedance,” Earthquake Spectra, vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 636–653, Feb. 2025, doi: 10.1177/87552930241280401.

B. E. Shaw, K. R. Milner, and C. A. Goulet, “Deterministic Physics‐Based Earthquake Sequence Simulators Match Empirical Ground‐Motion Models and Enable Extrapolation to Data‐Poor Regimes: Application to Multifault Multimechanism Ruptures,” Seismological Research Letters, vol. 96, no. 4, pp. 2431–2444, Mar. 2025, doi: 10.1785/0220240141.

A. M. Shumway, K. R. Milner, M. P. Moschetti, P. M. Powers, J. M. Altekruse, B. T. Aagaard, A. E. Hatem, R. W. Briggs, J. A. T. Jobe, K. B. Withers, A. L. Llenos, A. J. Michael, et al., “2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: Overview of Model and Hazard Results,” Earthquake Spectra, 2025, Accepted.

2024

S. Callaghan, P. J. Maechling, F. Silva, M.-H. Su, K. R. Milner, R. W. Graves, K. B. Olsen, Y. Cui, K. Vahi, A. Kottke, C. A. Goulet, E. Deelman, T. H. Jordan, and Y. Ben-Zion, “Using open-science workflow tools to produce SCEC CyberShake physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard models,” Front. High Perform. Comput., vol. 2, p. 1360720, May 2024, doi: 10.3389/fhpcp.2024.1360720.

M. C. Gerstenberger, R. Van Dissen, C. Rollins, C. DiCaprio, K. K. S. Thingbaijam, S. Bora, C. Chamberlain, A. Christophersen, G. L. Coffey, S. M. Ellis, P. Iturrieta, K. M. Johnson, et al., “The Seismicity Rate Model for the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 114, no. 1, pp. 182–216, Feb. 2024, doi: 10.1785/0120230165.

A. L. Llenos, A. J. Michael, A. M. Shumway, J. L. Rubinstein, K. L. Haynie, M. P. Moschetti, J. M. Altekruse, and K. R. Milner, “Forecasting the Long‐Term Spatial Distribution of Earthquakes for the 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model Using Gridded Seismicity,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 114, no. 4, pp. 2028–2053, Apr. 2024, doi: 10.1785/0120230220.

T. M. O’Donnell, K. M. Stewart, and K. R. Milner, “Relative Contributions of Different Sources of Epistemic Uncertainty on Seismic Hazard in California,” in Proceedings of the 18th World Conference in Earthquake Engineering (18WCEE), Milan, Italy, Jun.–Jul. 2024.

M. D. Petersen, A. M. Shumway, P. M. Powers, E. H. Field, M. P. Moschetti, K. S. Jaiswal, K. R. Milner, S. Rezaeian, A. D. Frankel, A. L. Llenos, A. J. Michael, J. M. Altekruse, et al., “The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications,” Earthquake Spectra, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 5–88, Feb. 2024, doi: 10.1177/87552930231215428.

2023

E. H. Field, K. R. Milner, A. E. Hatem, P. M. Powers, F. F. Pollitz, A. L. Llenos, Y. Zeng, K. M. Johnson, B. E. Shaw, D. McPhillips, J. Thompson Jobe, A. M. Shumway, et al., “The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time‐Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 114, no. 1, pp. 523–571, Dec. 2023, doi: 10.1785/0120230120.

M. C. Gerstenberger, S. Bora, B. A. Bradley, C. DiCaprio, A. Kaiser, E. F. Manea, A. Nicol, C. Rollins, M. W. Stirling, K. K. S. Thingbaijam, R. J. Van Dissen, E. R. Abbott, et al., “The 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model: Process, Overview, and Results,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 114, no. 1, pp. 7–36, Dec. 2023, doi: 10.1785/0120230182.

X. Meng, C. Goulet, K. Milner, R. Graves, and S. Callaghan, “Comparison of Nonergodic Ground-Motion Components from CyberShake and NGA-West2 Datasets in California,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 113, no. 3, pp. 1152–1175, Jun. 2023, doi: 10.1785/0120220049.

K. R. Milner and E. H. Field, “A Comprehensive Fault‐System Inversion Approach: Methods and Application to NSHM23,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 114, no. 1, pp. 486–522, Dec. 2023, doi: 10.1785/0120230122.

2022

K. R. Milner, B. E. Shaw, and E. H. Field, “Enumerating Plausible Multifault Ruptures in Complex Fault Systems with Physical Constraints,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 112, no. 4, pp. 1806–1824, May 2022, doi: 10.1785/0120210322.

S. E. Minson, E. S. Cochran, J. K. Saunders, S. K. McBride, S. Wu, A. S. Baltay, and K. R. Milner, “What to expect when you are expecting earthquake early warning,” Geophysical Journal International, vol. 231, no. 2, pp. 1386–1403, Aug. 2022, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggac246.

2021

E. H. Field, K. R. Milner, M. T. Page, W. H. Savran, and N. Van Der Elst, “Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3-ETAS),” The Seismic Record, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 117–125, Jul. 2021, doi: 10.1785/0320210017.

E. H. Field, K. R. Milner, and N. Luco, “The Seismic Hazard Implications of Declustering and Poisson Assumptions Inferred from a Fully Time‐Dependent Model,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 112, no. 1, pp. 527–537, Oct. 2021, doi: 10.1785/0120210027.

K. R. Milner, B. E. Shaw, C. A. Goulet, K. B. Richards-Dinger, S. Callaghan, T. H. Jordan, J. H. Dieterich, and E. H. Field, “Toward Physics-Based Nonergodic PSHA: A Prototype Fully Deterministic Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 111, no. 2, pp. 898–915, Apr. 2021, doi: 10.1785/0120200216.

S. E. Minson, A. S. Baltay, E. S. Cochran, S. K. McBride, and K. R. Milner, “Shaking is Almost Always a Surprise: The Earthquakes That Produce Significant Ground Motion,” Seismological Research Letters, vol. 92, no. 1, pp. 460–468, Jan. 2021, doi: 10.1785/0220200165.

2020

E. H. Field, K. R. Milner, and K. A. Porter, “Assessing the value of removing earthquake-hazard-related epistemic uncertainties, exemplified using average annual loss in California,” Earthquake Spectra, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 1912–1929, Nov. 2020, doi: 10.1177/8755293020926185.

E. H. Field, K. R. Milner, and M. T. Page, “Generalizing the Inversion‐Based PSHA Source Model for an Interconnected Fault System,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 111, no. 1, pp. 371–390, Nov. 2020, doi: 10.1785/0120200219.

A. J. Michael, S. K. McBride, J. L. Hardebeck, M. Barall, E. Martinez, M. T. Page, N. Van Der Elst, E. H. Field, K. R. Milner, and A. M. Wein, “Statistical Seismology and Communication of the USGS Operational Aftershock Forecasts for the 30 November 2018 Mw 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska, Earthquake,” Seismological Research Letters, vol. 91, no. 1, pp. 153–173, Jan. 2020, doi: 10.1785/0220190196.

K. R. Milner, E. H. Field, W. H. Savran, M. T. Page, and T. H. Jordan, “Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS Model,” Seismological Research Letters, vol. 91, no. 3, pp. 1567–1578, May 2020, doi: 10.1785/0220190294.

W. H. Savran, M. J. Werner, W. Marzocchi, D. A. Rhoades, D. D. Jackson, K. Milner, E. Field, and A. Michael, “Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 110, no. 4, pp. 1799–1817, Aug. 2020, doi: 10.1785/0120200026.

2019

S. E. Minson, A. S. Baltay, E. S. Cochran, T. C. Hanks, M. T. Page, S. K. McBride, K. R. Milner, and M.-A. Meier, “The Limits of Earthquake Early Warning Accuracy and Best Alerting Strategy,” Sci Rep, vol. 9, no. 1, p. 2478, Feb. 2019, doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-39384-y.

2018

C. B. Crouse, T. Jordan, K. Milner, C. Goulet, S. Callaghan, and R. Graves, “Site-specific MCER response spectra for Los Angeles Region based on 3-D numerical simulations and the NGA West2 equations,” in Proceedings of the 11th National Conference in Earthquake Engineering (11NCEE), Los Angeles, California, Jun. 2018.

E. H. Field and K. R. Milner, “Candidate Products for Operational Earthquake Forecasting Illustrated Using the HayWired Planning Scenario, Including One Very Quick (and Not‐So‐Dirty) Hazard‐Map Option,” Seismological Research Letters, vol. 89, no. 4, pp. 1420–1434, Jul. 2018, doi: 10.1785/0220170241.

T. H. Jordan, S. Callaghan, R. W. Graves, F. Wang, K. R. Milner, C. A. Goulet, P. J. Maechling, K. B. Olsen, G. Juve, K. Vahi, J. Yu, E. Deelman, and D. Gill, “CyberShake models of seismic hazards in Southern and Central California,” in Proceedings of the 11th National Conference in Earthquake Engineering (11NCEE), Los Angeles, California, Jun. 2018.

M. P. Moschetti, S. Chang, C. B. Crouse, A. Frankel, R. Graves, H. Puangnak, N. Luco, C. Goulet, S. Rezaeian, A. Shumway, P. M. Powers, M. D. Petersen, S. Callaghan, T. H. Jordan, and K. Milner, “The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation‐based PSHA,” in Proceedings of the 11th National Conference in Earthquake Engineering (11NCEE), Los Angeles, California, Jun. 2018.

B. E. Shaw, K. R. Milner, E. H. Field, K. Richards-Dinger, J. J. Gilchrist, J. H. Dieterich, and T. H. Jordan, “A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California,” Sci. Adv., vol. 4, no. 8, p. eaau0688, Aug. 2018, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aau0688.

2017

E. Field, K. Porter, and K. Milner, “A Prototype Operational Earthquake Loss Model for California Based on UCERF3-ETAS – A First Look at Valuation,” Earthquake Spectra, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 1279–1299, Nov. 2017, doi: 10.1193/011817eqs017m.

E. H. Field, K. R. Milner, J. L. Hardebeck, M. T. Page, N. Van Der Elst, T. H. Jordan, A. J. Michael, B. E. Shaw, and M. J. Werner, “A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 107, no. 3, pp. 1049–1081, Jun. 2017, doi: 10.1785/0120160173.

E. H. Field, T. H. Jordan, M. T. Page, K. R. Milner, B. E. Shaw, T. E. Dawson, G. P. Biasi, T. Parsons, J. L. Hardebeck, A. J. Michael, R. J. Weldon, P. M. Powers, et al., “A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3),” Seismological Research Letters, vol. 88, no. 5, pp. 1259–1267, Sep. 2017, doi: 10.1785/0220170045.

K. Porter, E. Field, and K. Milner, “Trimming a Hazard Logic Tree with a New Model-Order-Reduction Technique,” Earthquake Spectra, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 857–874, Aug. 2017, doi: 10.1193/092616eqs158m.

2015

E. H. Field, G. P. Biasi, P. Bird, T. E. Dawson, K. R. Felzer, D. D. Jackson, K. M. Johnson, T. H. Jordan, C. Madden, A. J. Michael, K. R. Milner, M. T. Page, T. Parsons, P. M. Powers, B. E. Shaw, W. R. Thatcher, R. J. Weldon, and Y. Zeng, “Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3),” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 105, pp. 511–543, Apr. 2015, doi: 10.1785/0120140093.

2014

E. H. Field, R. J. Arrowsmith, G. P. Biasi, P. Bird, T. E. Dawson, K. R. Felzer, D. D. Jackson, K. M. Johnson, T. H. Jordan, C. Madden, A. J. Michael, K. R. Milner, M. T. Page, T. Parsons, P. M. Powers, B. E. Shaw, W. R. Thatcher, R. J. I. Weldon, and Y. Zeng, “Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time‐Independent Model,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 104, no. 3, pp. 1122–1180, Jun. 2014, doi: 10.1785/0120130164.

M. T. Page, E. H. Field, K. R. Milner, and P. M. Powers, “The UCERF3 Grand Inversion: Solving for the Long‐Term Rate of Ruptures in a Fault System,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 104, no. 3, pp. 1181–1204, Jun. 2014, doi: 10.1785/0120130180.

T. Parsons, M. Segou, V. Sevilgen, K. Milner, E. Field, S. Toda, and R. S. Stein, “Stress‐based aftershock forecasts made within 24 h postmain shock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 41, no. 24, pp. 8792–8799, Dec. 2014, doi: 10.1002/2014GL062379.

2013

K. R. Milner, M. T. Page, E. H. Field, T. Parsons, G. P. Biasi, and B. E. Shaw, “Appendix T—Defining the inversion rupture set using plausibility filters,” 2013, doi: 10.3133/ofr20131165.

2012

T. Parsons, E. H. Field, M. T. Page, and K. Milner, “Possible Earthquake Rupture Connections on Mapped California Faults Ranked by Calculated Coulomb Linking Stresses,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 102, no. 6, pp. 2667–2676, Dec. 2012, doi: 10.1785/0120110349.

K. A. Porter, E. H. Field, and K. Milner, “Trimming the UCERF2 Hazard Logic Tree,” Seismological Research Letters, vol. 83, no. 5, pp. 815–828, Sep. 2012, doi: 10.1785/0220120012.

2011

S. Callaghan, P. Maechling, P. Small, K. Milner, G. Juve, T. H. Jordan, E. Deelman, G. Mehta, K. Vahi, D. Gunter, K. Beattie, and C. Brooks, “Metrics for heterogeneous scientific workflows: A case study of an earthquake science application,” The International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 274–285, Aug. 2011, doi: 10.1177/1094342011414743.

R. Graves, T. H. Jordan, S. Callaghan, E. Deelman, E. Field, G. Juve, C. Kesselman, P. Maechling, G. Mehta, K. Milner, D. Okaya, P. Small, and K. Vahi, “CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California,” Pure Appl. Geophys., vol. 168, no. 3–4, pp. 367–381, Mar. 2011, doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0161-6.

2010

S. Callaghan, E. Deelman, D. Gunter, G. Juve, P. Maechling, C. Brooks, K. Vahi, K. Milner, R. Graves, E. Field, D. Okaya, and T. Jordan, “Scaling up workflow-based applications,” Journal of Computer and System Sciences, vol. 76, no. 6, pp. 428–446, Sep. 2010, doi: 10.1016/j.jcss.2009.11.005.

2009

K. Milner, T. W. Becker, L. Boschi, J. Sain, D. Schorlemmer, and H. Waterhouse, “New Software Framework to Share Research Tools,” EoS Transactions, vol. 90, no. 12, pp. 104–104, Mar. 2009, doi: 10.1029/2009EO120005.

2008

S. Callaghan, P. Maechling, E. Deelman, K. Vahi, G. Mehta, G. Juve, K. Milner, R. Graves, E. Field, D. Okaya, D. Gunter, K. Beattie, and T. Jordan, “Reducing Time-to-Solution Using Distributed High-Throughput Mega-Workflows - Experiences from SCEC CyberShake,” in 2008 IEEE Fourth International Conference on eScience, Indianapolis, IN, USA: IEEE, Dec. 2008, pp. 151–158. doi: 10.1109/eScience.2008.60.